Step it UP!

by Lora Cecere on January 25, 2012 · 0 comments

My mother used to tell me, “If you cannot say anything positive, don’t say anything at all.”  And, while I should  probably heed her advice on this beautiful morning in Baltimore, I am not going to.

This week, I attended the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) supply chain event.  When it comes to content, it was one of the worst events that I have attended in the past two years.  It was very disappointing.  So, why am I not going to heed my mother’s advice?  The answer is simple.  I care too much about the industry.

In the week  prior, I had attended the National Retail Federation (#NRF12) event in New York.  Following the event,  I had written a blog about the growing gap between consumer products and retailers in the adoption and understanding of new technologies. I left the GMA conference muttering, “It is not a gap.  It is a great divide.”

I contrasted what I heard at the conference to what I am hearing from my CPG customers.  The words of one of my customers’ kept ringing in my ears. Her point over and over again to me is that it is about the customer.   Her new goal is the ability to “define the Art of the Possible to better serve the customer.”   What does she mean by that?  It is the redefinition of the supply chain to connect customer’s customer to supplier’s supplier to improve sensing and drive a more intelligent response.  It is the use of new forms of analytics and the convergence of  new technologies (mobile, social and geolocation) to change supply chain management. During the conference, I did not hear the word “customer” once.  I scratched my head, and wondered what happened to the definition of the supply chain from the customer’s customer to the supplier’s supplier.

I had just come from Barcelona Spain where I spoke at a Georgia Tech class on Demand-driven Supply Chains.  As part of the program, I got to judge regional Coca-Cola pilots where distributors competed on who could drive the best progress through demand sensing and shaping initiatives. They were great!

I am also excited about the work that I am seeing in the industry on Digital Point of Purchase.  This is the use of digital technologies to change the shopping experience and the supply chain end-to-end.  I am closely following the work of my friend Jerry Wolfe, CEO and Vice President of Supply Chain Strategy at McCormick, on his work on Digital Point of Purchase (Follow his tweets at #DP2P.  They are excellent.)   So, can you imagine my dismay to see four executives on the main stage  speaking about “collaboration” as a series of small projects to eliminate dead head miles?  This is yesterday’s news.  I wanted to scream!

As the day went on, the program was even worse.  There just was not much there.  Very disappointing.  In the words of Warren Buffet, “When the tide goes out, you can see who is swimming naked. “  Folks, in my opinion the tide is going out.  Supply chain is more than logistics.  The world of technologies is at a revolution not an evolution.  We need to step it up and embrace convergence.  We need to redesign supply chains for big data to be ready for food safety compliance and customer sentiment.  Because if we do not, I fear we will see a lot of people swimming naked. It could be YOU! <And, as I scanned the audience at the event, this would not be a pretty sight.:)>

Seven Topics that I would have liked to have seen on the Agenda:

I know from many years of developing programs, that there are always critics. I don’t want to be a critic of the program without offering suggestions.  So, to be helpful to program planners, I wanted to share some thoughts on some potential themes for next year.  Here are some themes that I would like to have considered:

Mobility.  How are companies adopting mobility, and how is this changing the relationship with the customer, the cycles in the supply chain and the ability to improve communication with employees?  How are companies planning to use RFID and embrace the resurgence of RFID as a better sensor for the supply chain?  How is the adoption of mobility changing the pace of the supply chain?  How is geolocation visibility changing transportation?

Demand Orchestration.  Commodity prices are escalating.  Demand volatility is increasing.  Companies are looking for strategies to bridge volatility across the supply chain market to market.  At the conference, it would have been great to have had a discussion on how companies are managing promotions and new product launch with market-driven value networks.

Store Circulars.  The traditional grocery store cycle has been driven by the weekly printed circular.  Is this going away? What is the adoption of electronic circulars, and how does this change the rhythms and cycles of the supply chain?

Digital Path to Purchase.   I feel that we will only ever really collaborate (establish a long term win/win value proposition) if we focus together (retailer and the manufacturer) on the shopper.  I would have loved a discussion on how digital technologies (social, mobile, geolocation and eCommerce) are changing our relationship with the shopper.  A discussion of lessons learned, pitfalls and successes would have been a great discussion topic.  For example, is 5X lift on electronic coupons the market average?  And, if so, how are companies dealing with the replenishment issues of greater volatility?

User-based Content.  How are companies syndicating consumer generated rating and review data and using it to transform their supply chain?  How are they using it to better sense what customers want and how they are serving the customers?

Demand Sensing.  I would have loved to have seen a great discussion on the changes store clustering strategies along with insights on current state of syndicated data, the evolution of usable point of sale data, the convergence with social sentiment and User-generated Content (UGC), and how this is changing merchandising, store assortment and replenishment strategies.

Future of eCommerce.  What can we learn from Amazon and Alice.com’s current work into grocery retailing?  What does this mean for channel strategies and the assortment at the store?

Food Safety.  Where are we on the many initiatives on food recall and what will the food safety mandates mean to enterprise architectures?

Horizontal Processes.  How are companies defining horizontal processes to align end-to-end.  How are the processes of revenue management, supplier development, assortment, Sales and Operations Planning and social responsibility changing supply chain organizations?

Sustainability Scorecards.  We have talked about sustainability, and we have corporate social responsibility initiatives, but when the rubber hits the road, how is compliance affecting buying?  How is the sustainability scorecard affecting what is bought today and what will be bought in the future?  What steps and progress have we made to have a “greener” consumer value chain?

Summary:

However, as I drink my cup of coffee, I reflect on some undeniable truths.  GMA is primarily a lobbying agent for the consumer manufacturers.  The only people that can affect the program and the focus of GMA are paying members.  Supply chain is only one of the user-based committees.  The fee structure for folks like me to join is prohibitive.  So, the only way that I can affect the program and the course of the industry is to appeal to my friends who are members.  So, here I go.  This is my APPEAL.  Please STEP IT UP!  The tide is going out.  I believe what I saw this week is not good enough….  Let me know how I can help.

What did you think of the GMA conference and what do you think should be the focus of next year’s event?

This week, I will be in Phoenix at the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) IE event.  I will be moderating the program on Friday and discussing my current research.  Will I see you there?  Look for my tweets at @lcecere.

 

 

 

A New Technology that should Push Your Buttons

by Lora Cecere on January 19, 2012 · 9 comments

Today, Kodak filed for bankruptcy and Facebook announced a new feature–Action Buttons– in preparation for their upcoming IPO.  For me, this is like Alpha and Omega. Why do I put the two together?  Here are my thoughts:

In 1975, Kodak invented the digital camera based on patents filed 15 years earlier. <I know this is painful.> Internally, the organization fought using them. It was a risk to their film business.  The rest is history. Even after restructuring and efforts to build new businesses, Kodak reported only one full-year profit—in 2007—in the last eight years. It has been such a LONG, painful slide….

Today, Facebook posted a list of companies using their new functionality.  There were sixty of them (reference http://www.theverge.com/2012/1/18/2717453/facebook-open-graph-launches-mark-zuckerberg-new-partners.)  When consumer goods manufacturers and retailers read this list, they will probably recognize less than 1% of the companies.  The partners are not the normal list that most of you will find signing in and out of your company’s security log.

Additionally, information on digital technologies is silo’d.  In these organizations, Facebook and digital marketing intiatives are currently managed by the marketing department.  Unfortunately, it is marketing for the sake of marketing.  Very few are thinking about the use of the functionality to become market-driven.  I keep hoping.  I do interview after interview looking for the change, but so far it has not happened.  What is the difference between market-driven and marketing-driven?  Three things:

  • It is not about YOU. It is about THEM.  When you are marketing driven, the message is all about you. Your products. Your company.  The brand managers try to own a closely-held message.  The goal is to YELL the message and get it everywhere.   When you are market-driven, the goal is about consumer relevance and creating relationships with the shopper, the customer and the greater market.  It is no longer about you the brand company; instead it is about them.  The power has shifted….
  • Open.  Orchestrated Cross-functionally.  Marketing-driven initiatives are tightly controlled within marketing.  The applicability to other organizations within the firm lacks amplification. In market-driven companies, they are part of strong outside-in horizontal processes.  <I know, I am consistent.>
  • Market-driven companies listen.  Market-driven companies also test and learn in real-time.  They use data analytics to sense answers to the questions that they do not know to ask.  <This is one of the reasons why Amazon is gaining market share from Wal-Mart and Target).  Marketing-driven companies construct campaigns, analyze data and try it again.  They are usually based on history. They are static.  <It is hard to listen when you are so busy filling social media sound waves with your message.>

So why is Alpha and Omega relevant? Why should it be a Button for You?

Kodak was a marketing-driven company that failed.  The lifeblood of a corporation is new products.  The lack of good demand insights is the number one issue in new product launch.  So, I appeal to all of my friends in manufacturing and retail to learn how to unlock the potential of the “action button.”  Why?

In just two years, Facebook’s “Like” button has grown in popularity.  It is deployed in over 2.5 million websites, but now it can be different.  It can be the combination of a noun and a verb. Examples could go on an on…. I want it. I own it.  I bought it. I hate it. I love it. I cook with it. I use it. Anyone that uses Facebook knows just how inadequate the “like” button is when a friend breaks up with a longterm boyfriend, your sweater developed a hole in the sleeve when it was washed, a friend of a friend’s house burns down, or your daughter’s friend loses her mother.  The “action button” allows us to improve relevance quickly.

A good place to check out this feature is at Payvment.  This company is a social commerce “mall” on Facebook.  G o there. The page has 1.1 million users and sells items from more than 150,000 brands and merchants.  It lets customers click a “Want”, “Hate”, “Love” or “Own” button for a particular item. But now, when Facebook members who have integrated the Payvment application click those buttons, the fact that they “Want” a BMW, ”Hate” a Cadillac and  ”Own” a Cannondale bike will show up to all their friends.  Each visitor gets a unique assortment of vendor store fronts based on the social and interest graphs and their “Action Buttons.”  Check it out.

My challenge to all my consumer products manufacturing and retail friends is: What is your strategy for the use of the “Action Button”?  I would like to see companies think about it in three ways:

-Use Action Buttons in New Product Launch Planning.  When you launch your next new product, sense market reaction. Combine analytics to look at the intersection of the interest and social graph with the response from the “Action Buttons”. Use this data to daily sense the market response to your new product launch.

Use this data to build forecasting models.  If fans in your loyal demographic “want” your new product, it is probably a powerful causal factor to put into your next demand forecast.  If they “hate” the product, it is probably time to rethink the product build plan.  This can only be modeled if you are forecasting what you are going to sell (versus what you are going to manufacturer or ship), there is sufficient level of granularity to see the pattern (forecasting in days or weeks) and the software has causal factor modeling.  Only 10% of companies that I follow have this level of sophistication.  This is already in process at Amazon and Wal-Mart.  And, while it is still a new concept for the consumer products supplier, my bet is on the Frito Lay  or General Mills teams to do this first.  <Please be bold.  Prove me wrong. Let me write your case study.>

-Use Action Buttons as an Input in Demand Sensing.  As the product is shipped to the market, follow the social sentiment closely.  The action buttons are a great way to target information. This in combination with sensing technologies helps companies to get a quick read of the market.

Use the information in cross-functional launch meetings to be more effective.  Dell, Newell Rubbermaid, and Whirlpool do this weekly.  Consider the use of Bazaarvoice sentiment analysis on user generated content (cool interface) for ratings and reviews and a pre-build data model (appliance) from IBM, NetBase, SAS Institute, or Teradata to quickly understand the market dynamics. (Conventional processes use syndicated data feeds from IRI or Nielsen to analyze market lift.  This is two to three weeks longer to read the market than the new sensing capabilities. I think this is two-three weeks TOO long.)  I believe that time is of the essence.  It might be something that you can fix–placement, information, message– and quick sensing allows you to get it right before the product fails.

-Follow Others’ Action Buttons for Competitive Intelligence.  Train your merchandisers and sales teams on how to read the “Action Buttons” of competitors and trading partners.  Implement analytics to allow them to quickly process the signal. This should be a daily activity.  Be opportunistic.  Be Bold. If product X is failing at Store Y, read the sentiment and offer a new alternative.  If the placement is wrong, the coupon does not work, or the product is out of stock, fix it.  You can identify issues and opportunities with a 24 hour latency.  Roll out training for your merchandisers (if a retailer) and sales teams (if a consumer products company) this month.

In summary, social should not be about social for the sake of social. It is not about “fans.”  It is not about the number of “likes.”  It should not be contained in marketing.  It should not be outsourced to a PR firm.  It should not be based on first generation analytics.  Instead it should be seen as a way to have a relationship with the customer.  This can only happen if there is an understanding of the basics.  It is about story telling, building excitement and delivering relevance.  If you have these elements on your site, move aggressively to leverage this new functionality.

My wish for you is that you never fall into the trap of Kodak.  Avoid it by using technology to innovate, sense market trends, and be the first to market with customers where you have relevance.  This is the essence of being market-driven.  Put “Take Action on your Action Buttons” on your “To-Do” list for next week.  Let it be a button that you push to drive innovation excellence….

What do you think?  Are you ready to take the plunge?