New technologies

Yesterday, I finished a post on supply chain planning maturity.  A client had asked me, “How do I know if we have a mature supply chain planning organization?”  As we talked, and I drew the table, the first question was followed by, “How do I help my executive team understand the importance of planning and their role in the process?”  Planning leadership is a problem for most organizations. My focus here is to answer this second question.

 

There is no substitute for leadership. Take the General Mills and Kellogg example in figure 1. In the cereal industry, General Mills and Kellogg are fierce competitors. With the shift of power to the retailer, both have had to add headcount to manage the increased demands for sales to staff account-specific teams to better manage against retailer expectations. As a result, both organizations saw a decline in revenue/employee.

General Mills is much better at planning than Kellogg.  It is one of the primary reasons, as shown in figure 1, that General Mills has been able to have a margin advantage over Kellogg for the past four years. Through this period, under the leadership of John Church, they have focused on cross-functional decision making and the maturity of planning processes.

Excellence in supply chain planning is a cultural shift. Most organizations are better at reacting than planning. Reacting is rewarded and planning is not. Firefighting and hero behavior is easier to recognize than good planning.

To be good at planning, the organization needs to know where they are going.  Alignment is essential. As shown in figure 2, organizations struggle. Functions, when they operate in isolation against functional targets, will not be aligned and supply chain planning can make this worse if there is not clear leadership.

In research study after study, we see that the greatest challenge to achieving supply chain excellence is the understanding of the supply chain by the leadership team. Most companies operate well within functions, but struggle to build strong horizontal processes. They lack cohesion. For most, as shown in figure 2, the gaps between organizational functions are large. Closing the gaps happens when there are aligned metrics, clarity of vision and aligned planning processes. There has to be an enlightened leader that understands that the supply chain is a complex system with increasing complexity. It must be managed as a system.

Understanding Planning.

The journey starts with a clear understanding of the fundamentals of planning.  This does not come easily, and requires training. The executive team needs to be clear on the differences between strategic, tactical, operational, and executional planning and the connections between planning systems and the transactional systems of record. Many are not.

For clarity, the definitions are:

-Strategic Planning: The frequency is either monthly or quarterly and the focus is on long-term planning. It combines decisions across sell, deliver, make and source processes to drive value based outcomes. This includes optimization and discrete event simulation. The length of the duration will vary by industry, but is usually at least one year and often three to five.  It allows companies to evaluate the design of the network.  More advanced supply chain leaders model the role of complexity (product and customer), the impact of risk, and opportunity of innovation as well as product shipping and manufacturing locations, and inventory policies.

Leaders know that they have more than one supply chain and that they need to align the organization around the vision for each.  They also are clear that the supply chain is defined outside-in based on the channel requirements and the underlying rhythms and cycles of fulfillment, manufacturing and procurement. The average supply chain leader has five distinct supply chains.

-Tactical Planning: This process is usually monthly. Strategic and tactical planning processes are cross-functional and the foundational elements for end-to-end process thinking.

It is important for the executive team to be aligned in the strategic and tactical planning processes to enable seamless planning by  functions. Technology applications in this space include demand planning, tactical supply planning, procurement planning, multi-tier inventory optimization and Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP).

The executive focus should be on the output of strategic planning into the tactical process of S&OP.  When this happens, based on recent research, the company achieves 50% greater agility and 30% better organizational alignment (reference the improved organizational alignment in figure 3 versus figure 2).

-Operational Planning: Planning done in this short-term duration (often in what is termed the “slush period”) happens where planning assumptions are being “consumed” by open orders, shipments and planning commitments. Applications that operate in this horizon are manufacturing or production planning, demand sensing, Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), Supplier Managed Inventory (SMI), and Transportation Management Systems (TMS).

-Executional Planning:  This planning occurs within the order duration and is characterized by Available-to-Promise (ATP) functionality, warehouse management labor planning, and the routing/scheduling of trucks and shipments.

Executive intervention into the operational and executional planning processes should be focused at improving reliability. When executives intervene in these functional processes there is the danger that these well-intended efforts will throw the organization out of balance.

Other Considerations

Career Progression.  Leaders let planners get good at their jobs. One of the major hurdles that organizations face is organizational turnover in the planning function. Many organizations make the mistake of having the job as an entry-level position with lots of turnover.  In many organizations there is no career planning track that encourages the building of planning skills. Leaders build strong planning organizations with defined career progression and mentoring.

Metrics Alignment.  By definition, supply chain planning is based on the use of optimization engines to improve value, but organizations are often not clear on the objective function. When multiple supply chain planning systems are aligned functionally, but the outcomes are not aligned, they can fight themselves.

These leaders are clear that the supply chain is a complex system with increasingly complex systems. As a result, they never look at metrics in isolation of each other, and try to build the overall potential of the system focusing on alignment and balance. These leaders clearly understand that this focus needs to be on value-based outcomes, not inputs, and that measurement needs to based on a portfolio analysis.  In assessing the health of the supply chain they look at the elements of growth, profitability, supply chain cycles (working capital, cash-to-cash and inventory turns), customer service, and complexity together as a system.

Technology Evolution. Leaders invest in new planning systems as part of an effort to drive business process innovation. They have a clear understanding of the differences between the terms integration, synchronization, harmonization and translation of data. The focus of this new investment is outside-in not inside-out. They understand that the last decade of Advanced Planning Systems (APS) tightly coupled to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) is now a legacy concept.  The supply chains created were too inflexible and brittle. As a result, they are championing the collection and use of channel data, and the building of outside-in processes based on customer consumption. They are championing the building of sensing/learning supply chains based on new forms of analytics. They will frequently champion cross-functional teams on Big Data, new forms of analytics, Mobility, and Social/e-commerce convergence.  The focus is outside-in, cross-functional thinking.

I hope that this helps.  Gotta run.  Cab is waiting and my flight from Johannesburg to the states leaves soon. It is my hope that you have enjoyed this series of posts and that you can join in the discussion. Let me know if I missed anything….

I would also encourage you to sign up for our newsletter, and for our webinar on Sales & Operations planning that is happening on Thursday, June 13th at 1:00 p.m. We will be sharing insights from a recent study of 95 supply chain leaders.  We will be joined in the discussion by leaders from Enterasys and Avaya to vet the results. Hoping to see you there!

Out of Africa

by Lora Cecere on June 4, 2013 · 0 comments

Global multinational companies have a dilemma. Supply chain talent is primarily coming from North America and Europe, but these are the continents that represent the lowest levels of growth for supply chain 2020 (see figure 1).  Most global multinational companies have a solid base now in South America and Asia, but the race is on for Africa.

I spent this week at SAPICS in South Africa. At over 1,000 delegates, the conference is a large supply chain event. There are few global conferences that can boast this level of attendance.

At the end of my talk on the first day, I was asked by the audience to share what I would recommend as action steps for South African supply chains. So in this blog, I want to share my recommendations.

SAPICS Has a Unique Opportunity. South Africa is uniquely positioned to gain benefit in the race for supply chain modernization of Africa. However, it requires new forms of corporate/government partnerships. The conference was heavily dominated by third-party logistics firms, consultants and technology providers. SAPICS needs to form deep roots with global multinationals and government agencies to drive talent development. In a population with 29% unemployment, it needs to be about much more than certification. I would love to see it evolve into a program of research grants, co-op and student programs, and educational funding.

 

However, to capitalize on this opportunity, manufacturers need to step up. The presence of large South African manufacturers was limited at the conference (as was the thought leadership of global multinationals with operations in Africa).  It needs to be about industry/government/community partnership. South Africa is in a unique position to capitalize on the growing opportunity, and SAPICS has an opportunity to lead.

It Could Be a Step Change. Map Outside-in. Leverage Mobility.  I love what is happening in Africa on mobile application development. Most African households will never know a wire in the wall for a conventional phone. Instead, they are innovating in new ways on mobile devices.

One of my favorite presentations at the event was by Francis Marabula, Executive head of Supply Chain, Safaricom, Kenya. He spoke of M-Pesa and the evolution of new models for mobile commerce in Kenya. Mobile penetration is forecasted to be 85% of the households in Afria by 2015. In contrast, commercial banking will be 25% of households. The M-Pesa service allows users to deposit money into an account stored on their cell phones,  and to send balances using SMS technology to other users (including sellers of goods and services), and to redeem deposits for regular money. Users are charged a fee for sending and withdrawing money using the service.  It has spread quickly, and has become the most successful mobile phone based financial service in the developing world. It started with simple money transfers in 2007 and now includes a range of services. The M-Pesa mobile application now represents 30% of GDP in Kenya with 60,000 outlets.

Mobility and the direct connection to the shopper is a wonderful opportunity for the supply chain innovator to create new business models for the supply chain OUTSIDE-IN. Just as the African household will never know a conventional phone, there is no reason for them to know a conventional INSIDE-OUT supply chain.

Internet of Things As an Enabler. The conference kicked off with a presentation on robotics.  Tom Bonkenburg, Director of European Operations for St. Onge, Netherlands, presented a very compelling picture of robotics. He forecasted that today, robotics could save 10% of logistics labor costs. He also believes that in five years, robotics and smart vehicles could reduce total logistics costs by 48%. It was  a brilliant presentation, but I don’t think that robotics with the high unemployment rate, and the low wage rates, is the answer for Africa. Instead, I think that the answer for Africa is about mobility, new forms of analytics, and The Internet of Things.

What do I mean by The Internet of Things? It is the use of real-time sensing to power the supply chain outside-in. For example, Africa is constructing new infrastructure. Investment is happening in pumps for water, turbines for electricity, windmills, tollgates for roads, and modern factories with Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) and equipment sensing.  The common thread is The Internet of Things: Sensors that can transmit and share real-time status. This has two impacts on the supply chain: improvement of signaling for outside-in processes and the movement from mean-time failure on service supply chains to real-time sensing of equipment. It is my hope that the African supply chain leaders never know demand latency because they have the opportunity to design the supply chain to capture useage real-time. I hope that they can bypass the conventional licensed Advanced Planning Systems and leapfrog into cloud-based computing with learning systems and automated benchmarking.  If I had a magic wand, I would love to see SAPICS invest in a shared vision for industry leaders in Africa to combine mobility, Internet of Things, and new forms of anlaytics to build OUTSIDE-IN supply chain processes to leapfrog and improve current thinking.

In summary, I appreciate SAPICS invitation. I can now say that I have been to Africa. It is impressive to see such a large gathering of supply chain professionals in a small country at a time where unemployment is 29%. Congratulations on a successful event, but can we take it to the next level? SAPICS, be a leader. I believe that outside-in supply chain process thinking can happen out of Africa.