Good-bye to the Breakfast Club

March 24, 2010
4:28 pm

We met for five years at the Wyndham Hotel on Broad Street in Boston. It was usually for breakfast. My calendar was so full that it allowed very little face-to-face meeting time with a struggling start-up like Optiant; but since I have a passion to help start-ups, I rolled out of bed early for the breakfast club.
The group, due to turnover, was never the same. The names changed—Jonathan, Sean, Matt, Rajb, and Jim came to the table at different times – but, the topics were constant. We talked about the market, founder aspirations, and potential exit strategies. For awhile, it was like musical chairs, but on Monday, March 22, 2010, the music stopped, and the exit strategy became clear. Optiant was purchased by Logility for 3.3 Million dollars. The company sold for a low multiple and the founders, unlike those at its competitor LogicTools, received very little financial reward for their efforts.
It is a case study of a flawed software start-up. What can we learn? Three thoughts come to mind.

Three Lessons

Not about a Good Product. I have visited the Optiant implementations at HP and Procter Gamble. They are world class. The software worked. Optiant had a good product. The results were compelling: 30-50% reduction in working capital and a 5-10% improvement in service levels. Sadly, success in software start-ups has little to do with the product.
The company started off on bad footing –leadership and financial sisues– that never allowed it to get on its feet. Leadership, sales and marketing issues abounded. At the end, the board was more interested in an exit strategy and recouping some of the investment than improving supply chain value. The sale to Logility removes the financial viability shadow from Optiant’s battered past and allows a good product to survive. To be successful, Logility will have to leverage its sales and financial capabilities (which continue to impress me) without squashing the innovator’s spirit.
A Missionary Sell needs a Missionary. In many ways, Optiant was a solution looking for a buyer. The solution was ahead of its time. When the company started, inventory configuration –analyzing the right form and function of inventory and optimizing push pull boundaries—was new. It was a missionary sell. Unfortunately, the company was never able to find the right voice to convince buyers to try a new approach. For success, the company needed to find the equivalent of Ken Sharma of i2 Technologies, David Semchi-Levi previously of LogicTools or Shridar Tayur at SmartOps. They needed someone with enough passion and conviction to help a buyer try a new approach. They never found it. To make this successful, Logility will need to find one.
Market needs to be Big Enough. Inventory optimization is too small to be a stand-alone market. The primary driver of the inventory optimization market is the lack of functionality in the ERP supply chain planning suites. Simply put: companies struggling with new ERP implementations and million dollar implementations were unwilling to ask for new funds to improve what they had asked their boards to implement. Optiant found itself in a small, but competitive market. They were never able to achieve the SAP partnership status of their competitors and there were just too few of these companies to buy. This will not be an issue for Logility. They have a loyal and mature installed base. The company can sell it successfully into its base.

What now?

This solution will be available in the Logility Voyager 8 product. The question is will the two cultures find the right blend? Will Logility be able to retain and appreciate the deep optimization and innovation background of the Optiant’s founders? And will the Optiant founders be able to appreciate the sales and financial leadership that they were so sorely lacking? It will no longer be about improving SAP and Oracle implementations; instead, it will be about taking Logility to the next level. Will the Optiant founders have the stomach to do this? What do you think? Do you think that they will be successful?
Let me know what you think. The Supply Chain Shaman is off to India this week. Look for more postings on my travels.

Is your Supply Chain AI Ready?

June 11, 2026 2:39 pm

A simple quiz to assess an organization’s AI readiness.

The pace of change is fast and furious. Every day, technology advances faster than we can digest. A great challenge to have.

Determining whether a supply chain is “AI-ready” is less about technology and more about the gray matter between the ears of supply chain leaders. Leadership, alignment, and clarity of goals matter.

Too few companies are clear on the definition of supply chain excellence. Measuring and rewarding functional metrics reduces the firm’s value. Putting agentics on top of today’s processes can make bad practices run faster, reducing value.

The toughest job for the supply chain leader is challenging existing supply chain paradigms that were defined by the limitations of decades of supply chain technologies. As the curtain lifts on the potential of new forms of technology, process redefinition is our opportunity, but only if we are clear on what drives value. (Here, I link to the Supply Chains to Admire reports to help you define value. The next report will be published on June 23rd, along with my Dynamic Benchmarking Product, to help you define value in the face of your AI readiness. More information about the launch is at the bottom of this blog.)

Case Study: A Scrappy Demand Management Approach

June 9, 2026 5:37 pm

This study of Franklin Sports shines a light on the work that needs to be done at the sales account level to challenge a retail forecast, and also highlights the importance of a new technique for a forecast engine — reinforcement learning.

Artificial intelligence comes in many forms — large language models, generative AI, machine learning, unstructured text mining, deep learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, agents, and agentics. While the industry is wigging out about agentics, I think reinforcement learning is a great step forward in the journey of Artificial Intelligence.

Can We Side-Step the AI Spin Cycle?

June 7, 2026 3:44 pm

When it comes to combining tech, 1+1+1 should equal more than 1. The impact should be exponential. Unfortunately, today, the answer is 0.

What do I mean? Let me explain.

I find that the supply chain technology market moves slowly along traditional technology lines. Conferences are usually focused on the use of technology, not on redefining work. This bothers me. I want it to bother you as well.

Here I share some insights to drive change.

Supply Chain Health Check: The Power of an Orbit Chart

May 27, 2026 9:49 pm

An orbit chart is a powerful tool for understanding the “health” of a supply chain and its potential for improvement. The supply chain is a complex, non-linear system with limited trade-offs. The relationship between trade-offs varies by industry, region, and size. The orbit chart is a diagnostic we use in the Supply Chains to Admire work. Here I explain the use case.

Industry Solutions Should Drive Value Networks: They Don’t Today

May 19, 2026 10:06 pm

Today, companies require industry-specific supply chain solutions. The performance of 82% of the industries–I term this industry potential–is going backward while companies are trying to

Are You Writing a Check You Cannot Cash?

May 14, 2026 10:16 pm

Don’t let a well-intending, but ill-informed consultant or technologist set an expectation that you cannot meet. No when wins when there is a check written that cannot be cashed. In this case, the consultant will move to the next account leaving you holding the bag. Fight back with a data-driven argument. Help the organization think about inventory more holistically.