What if: Focus on “&” with the “End in Mind”

July 7, 2010
5:18 pm

It is the longest recession of the last four decades; and economists are gathering to discuss the possibility of a double-dip recession. It will not go away anytime too soon.
All that is known is the unknown. As 2010 winds to a close, three things are certain for supply chain professionals:

The links of the supply chain are weaker
Demand is more uncertain
Supply is more volatile

These three factors make horizontal processes like S&OP more important. In my research with Fortune 500 companies, I find that companies with strong horizontal processes sensed the changes in the 2009 downturn and aligned their supply chain 5X faster laggard (http://www.supplychainshaman.com/supply-chain-economic-recovery/good-forecasting-matters/). They were also able to achieve better year-over-year results in Days of Working Capital (DWC) (http://www.supplychainshaman.com/uncategorized/mirror-mirror-on-the-wall/) .
One of the factors that differentiates leaders in S&OP is the use of “what if analysis”. They focus on “What if analysis that focuses on & with the end in mind.” If you are scratching your head, please read on. It will become clear.

I am currently heads down finishing a report on S&OP technologies. What is clear to me from three months of research is that the gap has grown between the offerings of ERP expansionists and best of breed providers, that Software as a Service (SaaS) technologies are now a viable alternative, and Excel has a new birth. What-if capabilities and industry-specific data models differentiates the providers. Traditionally, S&OP technology selection has been a choice between Business Intelligence Vendors (BI), ERP expansionists (ERP), Advanced Planning Solutions (APS) or build-it-yourself. Today, there is a new category of software designed specifically for S&OP that has been largely ignored by the ERP expansionists (INFOR, Lawson, Oracle and SAP) and is under-served by traditional APS and BI providers.
Last week, prior to finalizing my report, I had the opportunity to present on this topic to 100 supply chain leaders on a Kinaxis webinar. When asked, “has what-if analysis increased in importance in 2010?”, over 60% of the respondents said yes. When asked, “do you have what you need in what-if analysis?”, the group was mixed. 45% of the respondents were just beginning to use what-if analysis and 42% said that there was a significant gap in what was available in the market with only 13% stating that they have what they need to perform their jobs today.
The gap for most lies in selecting technologies that can adequately model the “what-if” capabilities of their supply chain, and then agreeing on what good looks like.
For most that have been lulled to sleep– like by the Lorelei sirens of myths of old that lured the sailors to their shores — by the promise of an integrated end-to-end supply chain, they find themselves on the rocks in these uncertain times. Their first challenge is defining “the end in mind”. As teams focus on solving the problem, they find that have not thought hard enough on what drives value in their supply chain. Today, this is not trivial. It is ever more complex as companies balance goals and trade-offs for: corporate growth and costs, customer service and inventories, corporate social responsibility goals and cycle times, and tax efficiency versus sustainability. Once they align on what good looks like for their supply chains, they find that they are stuck. Their IT systems are unable to meet the requirements for what-if analysis. As a result, the teams cannot align against trade-offs and improve supply chain outcomes. In this world of uncertainty, they find that their deterministic outcomes of their installed IT systems assume certainty. They are stuck. Fixed integration of an unusable outcome.
They only become unstuck when they focus on the & or “what-if analysis” with the end in mind (e.g. the right trade-offs that drive the most value in the value chain for that company at that point in time).
What do you think? Do you also see this as a challenge? What are you doing to over-come this problem? I would love your input. Please share with the over 2000 readers of this blog.
This week, I am vacationing on the North Carolina shores. I am loving being lured to sleep by my own Lorelei–the winds that blow each night on my cottage– at the beach. I feel lucky to have been able to escape both the hot temperatures in the Northeast US and the oil pollution in the gulf.
Next week, I am spending time with three companies discussing what drives supply chain excellence and how they perform “what if-analysis” for their supply chain. With any luck, I will be able to publish the report on this topic by the end of the week. Please let me know your comments. I would like to include your feedback.

The Myth of End-to-End Planning

July 31, 2026 9:14 pm

Supply chain planning, supply management, supply chain execution, network design, and transportation/logistics management operate in silos. Not much has changed over four decades. The connections flow back through transactional systems: order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. There is a myth that companies can buy an end-to-end supply chain management solution. This is largely a myth. Here we explain.

Lead Time: A Broken Gossamer

July 16, 2026 6:38 pm

If you are struggling with supply chain planning, dancing in the light of shiny objects, and scratching your head, please read on. My goal is to help you.

Please do not AI Stupid. What do I mean? AI Stupid is putting agents and agentics on top of existing architectures believing that making them faster and hands free add value. To me, this is fools play.

I love AI. I am excited about new technologies. To this end, I want to shine a light on how new technologies can help address the black holes and inconsistencies in today’s supply chain, which largely stem from the limitations of the first generation of supply chain planning and execution technologies. In this blog, I give you three places to start.

Do You Need a Supply Chain Coach?

July 9, 2026 5:27 pm

Supply chain is where the rubber hits the road. For a public company, over 40% of market capitalization is tied to the trade-offs between growth, operating margin, inventory management, and Return on Capital Employed.

The road for supply chain improvement is fraught with issues. Here we share some and offer some advice.

Is your Supply Chain AI Ready?

June 11, 2026 2:39 pm

A simple quiz to assess an organization’s AI readiness.

The pace of change is fast and furious. Every day, technology advances faster than we can digest. A great challenge to have.

Determining whether a supply chain is “AI-ready” is less about technology and more about the gray matter between the ears of supply chain leaders. Leadership, alignment, and clarity of goals matter.

Too few companies are clear on the definition of supply chain excellence. Measuring and rewarding functional metrics reduces the firm’s value. Putting agentics on top of today’s processes can make bad practices run faster, reducing value.

The toughest job for the supply chain leader is challenging existing supply chain paradigms that were defined by the limitations of decades of supply chain technologies. As the curtain lifts on the potential of new forms of technology, process redefinition is our opportunity, but only if we are clear on what drives value. (Here, I link to the Supply Chains to Admire reports to help you define value. The next report will be published on June 23rd, along with my Dynamic Benchmarking Product, to help you define value in the face of your AI readiness. More information about the launch is at the bottom of this blog.)

Case Study: A Scrappy Demand Management Approach

June 9, 2026 5:37 pm

This study of Franklin Sports shines a light on the work that needs to be done at the sales account level to challenge a retail forecast, and also highlights the importance of a new technique for a forecast engine — reinforcement learning.

Artificial intelligence comes in many forms — large language models, generative AI, machine learning, unstructured text mining, deep learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, agents, and agentics. While the industry is wigging out about agentics, I think reinforcement learning is a great step forward in the journey of Artificial Intelligence.

Can We Side-Step the AI Spin Cycle?

June 7, 2026 3:44 pm

When it comes to combining tech, 1+1+1 should equal more than 1. The impact should be exponential. Unfortunately, today, the answer is 0.

What do I mean? Let me explain.

I find that the supply chain technology market moves slowly along traditional technology lines. Conferences are usually focused on the use of technology, not on redefining work. This bothers me. I want it to bother you as well.

Here I share some insights to drive change.

Supply Chain Shaman