Reflections

January 12, 2012
11:04 am

It has been two years since I resigned from AMR Research. At AMR, I had written over 600 articles on supply chain, and I managed a group of analysts. I was very “vested” in what I did there. When Gartner bought AMR, I cried. I made a decision that I needed to leave. I had worked for Gartner before.
In January 2010, I had a lump in my throat as I sat and looked at my computer screen. My research belonged to my prior employer. I erased my computer clean and started again. I no longer had access to the five years of research that I had built. I had to start over. In this post, I want to share my insights that I have today about supply chain management over these past two years.

What I have Learned:

Today, I reflect on where the industry is, my contribution to it, and my goals going forward. I make three commitments to my readers
Maturity. The companies that I worked with at AMR Research did not represent a normal distribution of supply chain practitioners. Companies self selected when they joined the AMR Research community. They were more active in the field of supply chain, and as a result, they had a higher level of maturity. Many were actively competing for top billing on the AMR Research Top 25 listing of Supply Chain Leaders. As a result, much of the research that I wrote while at AMR was for a more advanced practitioner.
I was asked Monday night by a client about my predictions as an analyst. Her question was, “How accurate were they?” Good question I thought. So, I went home and I thumbed through my written research. I found the predictions. About 70% of them happened, but I found that I was too optimistic. The timing was off. I am usually ahead of the market. My commitment to my readers is to try to be more grounded and practical.
Geek Speak. As I thumbed through my written research at AMR (I only have it in hard copy now), I winced at the Geek Speak. As one of the first generation of supply chain pioneers, I did not create a compelling message. I like most lost our way. Supply chain should have been about business value, but we wrapped ourselves around geek speak. I, ERP’d, APS’d, SCE’d, SCM’d my reader to death. I am sorry.
A current example of this in today’s market is the writing about SOMOLO omnichannel consumer experience. These will not be terms that I will use. Instead, I say “Really?” Does your teenage daughter say that they are going to go to the mall to experience the SOMOLO omnichannel experience? I don’t think so. I think that we are improving and redesigning the shopping experience through the convergence of technologies. Going forward, I am committed to the reader of this blog to sidestep Geek Speak and focus on what drives business value.
Vendor Influence of Analysts can yield bad Advice for Users. There is tremendous pressure within established analyst organizations to write positive pieces about vendors. In fact, it is better to write nothing at all as analyst, than to take a negative position. Trust me. I have the scars.
Large vendor organizations have internal analyst relations teams who are machines that are designed to squash anything that is the least bit negative. Yes, it is definitely a machine. And, I do not think that the business model has been good for the industry.
I am so GLAD to be out of that pressure. I feel bad that I was not allowed to take stronger positions on what I saw in the formative years of the evolution of supply chain management technologies. I tried; but I do have great stories to tell my friends over a glass of wine. However, what I can commit to, for my readers in 2012, is to tell it like it is. When I take a position, I will send it to the vendor for a 24 hour factual accuracy review, but I am going to make the hard calls. My writing is not going to be influenced by any provider of technology.

Back to Writing

OK, enough for now. I have to get back to writing the book, Bricks Matter. I finished 7000 words in the last three days and I had some great interviews this week with five great supply chain leaders. <These guys are definitely ahead of the pack.> I am also working on building a supply chain index of how companies year-over-year built value through supply chain practices, but more on that later.
Next week, I am at NRF and then flying to Barcelona to discuss market-driven supply chain practices with 21 leaders from emerging countries. The following week, I will be at the GMA/FMI conference. I then travel from Orlando to Washington, DC where I will be speaking to a group of government officials on how to use supply chain data to improve US infrastructure. On January 26th, I will fly to Las Vegas to facilitate the S&OP IE event. I hope to see you in my travels. Look for my posts. I will not forget my commitments.

Lead Time: A Broken Gossamer

July 16, 2026 6:38 pm

If you are struggling with supply chain planning, dancing in the light of shiny objects, and scratching your head, please read on. My goal is to help you.

Please do not AI Stupid. What do I mean? AI Stupid is putting agents and agentics on top of existing architectures believing that making them faster and hands free add value. To me, this is fools play.

I love AI. I am excited about new technologies. To this end, I want to shine a light on how new technologies can help address the black holes and inconsistencies in today’s supply chain, which largely stem from the limitations of the first generation of supply chain planning and execution technologies. In this blog, I give you three places to start.

Do You Need a Supply Chain Coach?

July 9, 2026 5:27 pm

Supply chain is where the rubber hits the road. For a public company, over 40% of market capitalization is tied to the trade-offs between growth, operating margin, inventory management, and Return on Capital Employed.

The road for supply chain improvement is fraught with issues. Here we share some and offer some advice.

Is your Supply Chain AI Ready?

June 11, 2026 2:39 pm

A simple quiz to assess an organization’s AI readiness.

The pace of change is fast and furious. Every day, technology advances faster than we can digest. A great challenge to have.

Determining whether a supply chain is “AI-ready” is less about technology and more about the gray matter between the ears of supply chain leaders. Leadership, alignment, and clarity of goals matter.

Too few companies are clear on the definition of supply chain excellence. Measuring and rewarding functional metrics reduces the firm’s value. Putting agentics on top of today’s processes can make bad practices run faster, reducing value.

The toughest job for the supply chain leader is challenging existing supply chain paradigms that were defined by the limitations of decades of supply chain technologies. As the curtain lifts on the potential of new forms of technology, process redefinition is our opportunity, but only if we are clear on what drives value. (Here, I link to the Supply Chains to Admire reports to help you define value. The next report will be published on June 23rd, along with my Dynamic Benchmarking Product, to help you define value in the face of your AI readiness. More information about the launch is at the bottom of this blog.)

Case Study: A Scrappy Demand Management Approach

June 9, 2026 5:37 pm

This study of Franklin Sports shines a light on the work that needs to be done at the sales account level to challenge a retail forecast, and also highlights the importance of a new technique for a forecast engine — reinforcement learning.

Artificial intelligence comes in many forms — large language models, generative AI, machine learning, unstructured text mining, deep learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, agents, and agentics. While the industry is wigging out about agentics, I think reinforcement learning is a great step forward in the journey of Artificial Intelligence.

Can We Side-Step the AI Spin Cycle?

June 7, 2026 3:44 pm

When it comes to combining tech, 1+1+1 should equal more than 1. The impact should be exponential. Unfortunately, today, the answer is 0.

What do I mean? Let me explain.

I find that the supply chain technology market moves slowly along traditional technology lines. Conferences are usually focused on the use of technology, not on redefining work. This bothers me. I want it to bother you as well.

Here I share some insights to drive change.

Supply Chain Health Check: The Power of an Orbit Chart

May 27, 2026 9:49 pm

An orbit chart is a powerful tool for understanding the “health” of a supply chain and its potential for improvement. The supply chain is a complex, non-linear system with limited trade-offs. The relationship between trade-offs varies by industry, region, and size. The orbit chart is a diagnostic we use in the Supply Chains to Admire work. Here I explain the use case.

Supply Chain Shaman