The Supply Chain Black Hole

February 4, 2010
5:29 pm

We have a black hole in the center of supply chain applications. A black hole you say? Yes, a black hole has developed between transactional systems focused on order-to-cash and procure-to-pay processes and supply chain optimization technologies. It is not there by design. It has evolved because the design of supply chain technologies were insufficient to meet today’s requirements.

Understanding the Black Hole

What is a black hole? In quantum mechanics terms, it is the region of space from which nothing can escape. It is the result of the deformation of space time caused by a very compact mass. Around the black hole, there is an undetectable surface which marks the point of no return, termed the event horizon by scientists. It is called “black” because it absorbs all light that hits it, reflecting nothing, just like a perfect black body in thermodynamics. Despite the invisible interior, a black hole can be observed through its interaction with other matter.
Companies may not realize it, but they have a black hole. It is the no-man’s land between ERP and Supply Chain Optimization (APS)/Supply Chain Execution (SCE) systems. We now know that fixed data integration, one-dimensional rules mapping, and traditional master data techniques from ERP to Supply Chain Optimization are insufficient. As a result, plans are created and consumed in isolation, and transactional systems hum along with little– to no — guided intelligence. Available-to-Promise (ATP) was our first foray into the black hole, but we did not go far enough.
Technologies are evolving to eliminate the supply chain black hole. In this first generation of supply chain applications, we have built a fixed response with very little sensing. How can we effectively respond when we cannot sense?

It is my belief, from seven years studying the market, that the technology applications to fill the black hole will come in many forms and from many different sources. From military technologies, we will see the applications of rules-based ontologies to intelligently sense and connect optimization plans to more intelligently drive transactional systems. Likewise, from the banking and insurance industries, we will see the application of pattern recognition of early market conditions to shape the supply chain response; and from search-engine optimization technologies (SEO), we will see the redefinition of master data management. These technology discontinuities will come from emerging technologies: guys that we don’t even know the names of today.

Where to Focus

We will be limited in how fast we move by our own traditional supply chain paradigms. To solve the black hole, we need to shake several paradigms and recognize that:

First generation were a start, but were not sufficient. The first generation of supply chain applications got us started down the path, but they must be cast-off to move forward. ERP is not the backbone of supply chain management for the future. The new technologies will not come from the ERP consolidators.
Need to Bridge the Discontinuity. We are at a discontinuity between inside-out and outside-in technologies. The new technologies will be outside-in. They will help us sense before responding. They will help drive an intelligent response. They will fill the black hole.
Requires a Focus on Innovation. Companies will be challenged to evolve old technology while maximizing the opportunities from evolving technologies at the same time. Early adopters have line-of-business scouts seeking to extract new answers to solve the black hole dilemma.

Going Forward

We have come along way from the go-go days of 2Q 1998 when i2 Technologies stock peaked at more than $110 a share and average APS deal sizes were $1.9 million dollars. At this time, the APS fueled by exuberance and excitement. Today, it has lost it’s luster. In its redefinition through the solving of the black hole problem, we will see a more mature market evolve with less hype and more grounding. For me, this will be exciting.
As the Supply Chain Shaman, I will be scouring the market to look for solutions to help us tackle the supply chain black hole. Look for me at industry events. Until then….

My Answer to Joe. The Future of APS

October 1, 2026 12:47 am

Traditional Advanced Planning Systems (APS) are unlikely to become true enterprise platforms because organizations remain functionally siloed, metrics are misaligned, and current APS architectures were designed for an environment that has fundamentally changed. Here I share how I think that APS systems can adapt to drive more value.

Teaching Your Organization to Jump

September 25, 2026 11:18 pm

Remember the story of the frog in the pot of water? If the water temperature rises slowly, the frog doesn’t recognize the danger until it is too late. Put the frog directly into boiling water, and it jumps.

I think the analogy applies to today’s supply chains.

Companies are absorbing increasing volatility and complexity without fundamentally redefining how work gets done. Companies have confused historic practices with best practices. They are now taking those same processes and attempting to automate them with agents and agentic AI—without first stopping to ask a more fundamental question: Is it time to jump? Here I give a five-step action plan.

Navigating Supply Chain Economic Downturns

August 30, 2026 5:28 pm

In 2007, the average company took six months to sense market shifts and adapt its supply chain. My estimate, based on work with clients, is that if a downturn happened today, the average company would take 20-30% more time to adjust than in 2007. Here I give insights on preparedness.

Warning: Sidestep the Narrative of the Misguided Goldiggers

August 10, 2026 4:58 pm

Ten years ago, I started writing a book titled Stories of the Misguided Gold Diggers. The book was a collection of stories from two decades of stories of technology leaders perpetuating the myth of integrated end-to-end supply chain planning.

I dusted off the manuscript on Saturday. I think that we have a new chapter. Companies focused on putting Artificial Intelligence (AI) on top of existing architectures are putting AI Stupid on steroids.

The Myth of End-to-End Planning

July 31, 2026 9:14 pm

Supply chain planning, supply management, supply chain execution, network design, and transportation/logistics management operate in silos. Not much has changed over four decades. The connections flow back through transactional systems: order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. There is a myth that companies can buy an end-to-end supply chain management solution. This is largely a myth. Here we explain.

Lead Time: A Broken Gossamer

July 16, 2026 6:38 pm

If you are struggling with supply chain planning, dancing in the light of shiny objects, and scratching your head, please read on. My goal is to help you.

Please do not AI Stupid. What do I mean? AI Stupid is putting agents and agentics on top of existing architectures believing that making them faster and hands free add value. To me, this is fools play.

I love AI. I am excited about new technologies. To this end, I want to shine a light on how new technologies can help address the black holes and inconsistencies in today’s supply chain, which largely stem from the limitations of the first generation of supply chain planning and execution technologies. In this blog, I give you three places to start.