Trends I am Watching

November 28, 2011
7:57 pm

It is that time again: ring out the old and ring in the new. The end of the year is a good time to reflect on the most significant trends of the past year and launch research into new areas. Here I share both:

Significant Trends of 2011

Supply Chain Disruptions: With the floods in Thailand, the tsunami in Japan, and the Arab spring in the mid-east, there are few supply chain leaders NOT talking about supply chain resiliency and the design of the shock absorbing supply chain. Supply chain sensing, control tower analytics and what-if analysis are growing in importance. 65% of companies that I am working with experienced a major supply chain disruption in 2011.
Supply Chain needs to be more than a Game of Labor Arbitrage: As labor rates in China increase, companies are rethinking supply chain design for flexibility. Labor, taxes, and raw material benefits are ever-changing and the supply chain needs to be able to adapt and flex with global conditions. It is no longer a game of labor arbitrage. Companies are waking up. It is more about value and learning the hard way that supply chains can no longer foolishly chase the lowest labor costs.
Chief Supply Chain Officer. With the growing importance of the supply chain on operations reliability, resilience and strategic alignment, 2011 is the first year that I have met professionals with Chief Supply Chain Officer in their title. While they are still few and far between, I feel that the evolution of the title is significant.

Trends I am Watching for 2012

Big Data Supply Chains. The concept of the big data supply chain is the evolution of technologies to harness the explosion of data and new data sources–sensor data, unstructured text, demand and supply sensing, transactional data forms– to drive a near real-time response. In this research, I will be writing about the evolution of Map Reduce models to harness new types of data with a keen interest in the use of unstructured data types. I will also be closely following the expanding capabilities of in-memory processing and the growing capabilities for reporting and analytics.
Definition of Outside-in Supply Chain Processes. Today’s supply chain processes are designed from the inside-out (from the enterprise processes of procure to pay and order to cash). Tomorrow’s processes will be designed from the outside-in (from the external environment to internal processes). The focus will be on sensing, shaping and driving an intelligent response. This evolution will take many years and will require the redefinition of current supply chain architectures. I will be following these trends.
Digital Path to Purchase and Social Commerce. I am currently writing a short report on social commerce. Last year in October 2011, Altimeter hosted an event–Rise of Social Commerce– to focus on the evolution of social processes to drive commerce. A year later, I find that the goals are still aspirational, but following one of four paths: extension enrichment of eCommerce, social as a new channel, social convergence of mobile/social and digital in the digital path to purchase and open innovation. The intersection of the open and social graph is still largely an untapped opportunity for the customer-centric supply chain.
Evolution of Supply Chain Adaptors. To connect the end-to-end supply chain, companies need adaptors for both demand and supply relationships. These adaptors cleanse, harmonize, translate and normalize disparate data types to improve demand and supply sensing. Demand signal repositories (DSR) were an early form of this technology category. Companies are learning the hard way that building the end-to-end supply chain is not as easy as connecting ERP and APS building blocks.
Safe and Secure Supply Chains. With changing legislation for serialization in pharmaceuticals and food safety in global supply chains, I will be following the impact on supply chain execution and the extended supply chain.
Supply Chain Sensing. Today, supply chains respond. They do a poor job of sensing. While latency in the extended supply chain is weeks (and the concepts of the bullwhip effect are understood academically), the impact is largely ignored in the extended supply chain system design. In this research theme, I will focus on understanding the benefit to companies to reduce supply chain latency.
Redefinition of Supply Chain Benchmarking. Software as a Service (SaaS) offers companies the opportunity to redefine benchmarking practices to represent the near real-time supply chain potential of peer groups. I will be closely following this trend as SaaS offerings embrace content and global supply chains align to near real time performance signals.

Interested in your thoughts. What trends do you think are significant? Any trends that you would like for me to watch?

Warning: Sidestep the Narrative of the Misguided Goldiggers

August 10, 2026 4:58 pm

Ten years ago, I started writing a book titled Stories of the Misguided Gold Diggers. The book was a collection of stories from two decades of stories of technology leaders perpetuating the myth of integrated end-to-end supply chain planning.

I dusted off the manuscript on Saturday. I think that we have a new chapter. Companies focused on putting Artificial Intelligence (AI) on top of existing architectures are putting AI Stupid on steroids.

The Myth of End-to-End Planning

July 31, 2026 9:14 pm

Supply chain planning, supply management, supply chain execution, network design, and transportation/logistics management operate in silos. Not much has changed over four decades. The connections flow back through transactional systems: order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. There is a myth that companies can buy an end-to-end supply chain management solution. This is largely a myth. Here we explain.

Lead Time: A Broken Gossamer

July 16, 2026 6:38 pm

If you are struggling with supply chain planning, dancing in the light of shiny objects, and scratching your head, please read on. My goal is to help you.

Please do not AI Stupid. What do I mean? AI Stupid is putting agents and agentics on top of existing architectures believing that making them faster and hands free add value. To me, this is fools play.

I love AI. I am excited about new technologies. To this end, I want to shine a light on how new technologies can help address the black holes and inconsistencies in today’s supply chain, which largely stem from the limitations of the first generation of supply chain planning and execution technologies. In this blog, I give you three places to start.

Do You Need a Supply Chain Coach?

July 9, 2026 5:27 pm

Supply chain is where the rubber hits the road. For a public company, over 40% of market capitalization is tied to the trade-offs between growth, operating margin, inventory management, and Return on Capital Employed.

The road for supply chain improvement is fraught with issues. Here we share some and offer some advice.

Is your Supply Chain AI Ready?

June 11, 2026 2:39 pm

A simple quiz to assess an organization’s AI readiness.

The pace of change is fast and furious. Every day, technology advances faster than we can digest. A great challenge to have.

Determining whether a supply chain is “AI-ready” is less about technology and more about the gray matter between the ears of supply chain leaders. Leadership, alignment, and clarity of goals matter.

Too few companies are clear on the definition of supply chain excellence. Measuring and rewarding functional metrics reduces the firm’s value. Putting agentics on top of today’s processes can make bad practices run faster, reducing value.

The toughest job for the supply chain leader is challenging existing supply chain paradigms that were defined by the limitations of decades of supply chain technologies. As the curtain lifts on the potential of new forms of technology, process redefinition is our opportunity, but only if we are clear on what drives value. (Here, I link to the Supply Chains to Admire reports to help you define value. The next report will be published on June 23rd, along with my Dynamic Benchmarking Product, to help you define value in the face of your AI readiness. More information about the launch is at the bottom of this blog.)

Case Study: A Scrappy Demand Management Approach

June 9, 2026 5:37 pm

This study of Franklin Sports shines a light on the work that needs to be done at the sales account level to challenge a retail forecast, and also highlights the importance of a new technique for a forecast engine — reinforcement learning.

Artificial intelligence comes in many forms — large language models, generative AI, machine learning, unstructured text mining, deep learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, agents, and agentics. While the industry is wigging out about agentics, I think reinforcement learning is a great step forward in the journey of Artificial Intelligence.

Supply Chain Shaman