…and then there were none?

December 14, 2011
12:53 pm

As I child, I spent hours on my bed reading books. One of my favorites was Agatha Christie’s detective novel, “And Then There Were None”. In this book, ten people, guilty in the deaths of others, have escaped punishment; but are tricked onto an island. Each guest is mysteriously murdered one by one, until there were none. It parallels the nursery rhyme, Ten Little Indians. It is one of the best-selling books of all time.
Last year about this time, I wrote the blog post on Accenture’s acquisition of CAS. (Reference blog post http://www.supplychainshaman.com/demanddriven/my-take-accenture-buys-cas/). As many of my readers know, I have studied technologies to help the consumer product value chain improve promotion effectiveness for the last 7 years. As I do, I feel that I am reading Agatha’s book: they are being killed off one by one. My question is until there are none?

The What

On Friday last week, IBM announced the intent to purchase DemandTec for 440 million. DemandTec, founded in 1999, currently has 355 employees. The company sold optimization software for revenue management (including trade promotion management for consumer products and price optimization for retail) as a Software as a Service (SaaS). The selling price is a 5.3 multiple of revenue to sale price. On a pure number basis, DemandTec served 50 retailers and 400 consumer products manufacturers; but on a revenue basis, DemandTec’s numbers were 75-80% retail. On the calls on Friday, the IBM team cited opportunities with Coremetrics and Unica. The DemandTec prior acquisitions of M-Factor and Connect3 offers real promise, but was not mentioned in IBM’s positioning. I believe that these opportunities offer more promise to retailers than consumer manufacturers.
I feel that the acquisition of trade promotion technologies is much like Agatha’s novel. They are disappearing one by one, but none of them have been very successful in driving customer loyalty.

The So What

The trade promotion market technology market is a troubled space. Retailers feel that they do not need CRM, but want optimization; and the DemandTec solution fit some, but not all of the consumer product companies needs. The Company’s desire to serve the value chain—retailers and consumer manufacturers together—was a great attempt; but at the end, it was more messaging than reality. All was not rosy. In 2011, DemandTec posted a series of losses and shares fell 22% through last Wednesday’s close.

What does the acquisition mean for DemandTec Customers? As an analyst, with all acquisitions, I hear a lot of phone rhetoric. This acquisition was no exception. And, I am skeptical, because acquisitions and promises seldom live up to expectations. While IBM has made progress with its recent Coremetrics and Unica acquisitions, there is a risk that when companies are acquired they lose the passion of the founders. This is a consolidation play. IBM is large, moves deliberately, and customers will not see much change fast. DemandTec customers should stabilize their implementations, work with IBM to understand their plans, and be thoughtful on moving forward on new functionality. There will be more uncertainty than certainty.
What does it mean for the market? The trade promotion market is a mess. In general terms, no customer is happy with any solution (reference posts at the bottom of this blog). SAP’s CRM solution continues to hit implementation roadblocks, and Oracle’s customer satisfaction remains low. The acquisition of CAS by Accenture and DemandTec by IBM should be good news for ProMax. ProMax, a new market entry from Australia, is trying to be the easier to do business best-of-breed solution.
What lessons can we learn? Just as in Agatha’s novel, the trade promotion market providers are disappearing one by one; and, like the Indians on the island, they are all a bit guilty for the mess that this TPM market finds itself in.

The NOW What

In closing, I hope that IBM does great things with DemandTec. I would love to see a deeper more end-to-end solution. I would encourage IBM customers to discuss plugging the three applications– DemandTec, Unica and Coremetrics– into the IBM Netezza appliance for consumer products and retail.
But, things move slowly in this space. <Should I say island?> I don’t expect IBM to make quick changes, but I do wish them well. I am also waiting for Accenture to do great things with CAS. I would love for SAP’s TPM solution to be a better fit for the requirements and for Oracle to offer a better level of customer service. However, right now, they are all on this island called trade promotion management. There is time to fix the issue before there are none.
For more on the trade promotion management market, reference these articles:
http://www.supplychainshaman.com/demanddriven/turning-up-the-heat-a-hot-topic-on-a-hot-afternoon/
http://www.supplychainshaman.com/supply-chain-excellence/crossing-the-great-divide/
http://www.supplychainshaman.com/demanddriven/my-take-accenture-buys-cas/)

The Myth of End-to-End Planning

July 31, 2026 9:14 pm

Supply chain planning, supply management, supply chain execution, network design, and transportation/logistics management operate in silos. Not much has changed over four decades. The connections flow back through transactional systems: order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. There is a myth that companies can buy an end-to-end supply chain management solution. This is largely a myth. Here we explain.

Lead Time: A Broken Gossamer

July 16, 2026 6:38 pm

If you are struggling with supply chain planning, dancing in the light of shiny objects, and scratching your head, please read on. My goal is to help you.

Please do not AI Stupid. What do I mean? AI Stupid is putting agents and agentics on top of existing architectures believing that making them faster and hands free add value. To me, this is fools play.

I love AI. I am excited about new technologies. To this end, I want to shine a light on how new technologies can help address the black holes and inconsistencies in today’s supply chain, which largely stem from the limitations of the first generation of supply chain planning and execution technologies. In this blog, I give you three places to start.

Do You Need a Supply Chain Coach?

July 9, 2026 5:27 pm

Supply chain is where the rubber hits the road. For a public company, over 40% of market capitalization is tied to the trade-offs between growth, operating margin, inventory management, and Return on Capital Employed.

The road for supply chain improvement is fraught with issues. Here we share some and offer some advice.

Is your Supply Chain AI Ready?

June 11, 2026 2:39 pm

A simple quiz to assess an organization’s AI readiness.

The pace of change is fast and furious. Every day, technology advances faster than we can digest. A great challenge to have.

Determining whether a supply chain is “AI-ready” is less about technology and more about the gray matter between the ears of supply chain leaders. Leadership, alignment, and clarity of goals matter.

Too few companies are clear on the definition of supply chain excellence. Measuring and rewarding functional metrics reduces the firm’s value. Putting agentics on top of today’s processes can make bad practices run faster, reducing value.

The toughest job for the supply chain leader is challenging existing supply chain paradigms that were defined by the limitations of decades of supply chain technologies. As the curtain lifts on the potential of new forms of technology, process redefinition is our opportunity, but only if we are clear on what drives value. (Here, I link to the Supply Chains to Admire reports to help you define value. The next report will be published on June 23rd, along with my Dynamic Benchmarking Product, to help you define value in the face of your AI readiness. More information about the launch is at the bottom of this blog.)

Case Study: A Scrappy Demand Management Approach

June 9, 2026 5:37 pm

This study of Franklin Sports shines a light on the work that needs to be done at the sales account level to challenge a retail forecast, and also highlights the importance of a new technique for a forecast engine — reinforcement learning.

Artificial intelligence comes in many forms — large language models, generative AI, machine learning, unstructured text mining, deep learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, agents, and agentics. While the industry is wigging out about agentics, I think reinforcement learning is a great step forward in the journey of Artificial Intelligence.

Can We Side-Step the AI Spin Cycle?

June 7, 2026 3:44 pm

When it comes to combining tech, 1+1+1 should equal more than 1. The impact should be exponential. Unfortunately, today, the answer is 0.

What do I mean? Let me explain.

I find that the supply chain technology market moves slowly along traditional technology lines. Conferences are usually focused on the use of technology, not on redefining work. This bothers me. I want it to bother you as well.

Here I share some insights to drive change.

Supply Chain Shaman